Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87f7…cb23 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,647 (-39%) realized −$4,587 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$986per market
Trades / day118.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,647
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-59.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -55.2% -59.5% 18% 18% -52.7%
≤30d 11 -55.2% -59.5% 18% 18% -52.7%
≤90d 11 -55.2% -59.5% 18% 18% -52.7%
all 11 -55.2% -59.5% 18% 18% -52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.5% 18% -52.7%
10% -63.4% 18% -57.2%
15% ← realistic here -66.9% 18% -61.4%
20% -70.1% 18% -65.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,221 vs −$781 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,840
Realized−$4,587
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$986
Trades / day118.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 44¢ 42¢ $1,900 $1,840 −$60 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 30 $529 −$500 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $2,222 −$1,514 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $937 +$1,251 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $1,563 −$1,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $734 −$700 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $936 +$1,192 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $1,460 −$1,400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $844 −$800 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $215 −$215 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,839.84 · official $1,839.84 (match) · 122 history records