Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87f8…9ff4 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$185 (+9%) realized +$185 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate80%16W / 4L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$170
other 10% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +26.3% +14.3% 80% 15% -1.2%
≤30d 20 +26.3% +14.3% 80% 15% -1.2%
≤90d 20 +26.3% +14.3% 80% 15% -1.2%
all 20 +26.3% +14.3% 80% 15% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 15% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here +3.3% 10% -10.6%
15% -6.6% 10% -19.3%
20% -15.8% 5% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.74 per $1 lost it wins $6.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses16 / 4
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $149 +$11 +7%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $140 +$3 +2%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $370 −$17 -5%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $175 +$7 +4%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $75 +$5 +7%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $74 +$11 +15%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $78 +$29 +37%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $150 −$2 -1%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $292 +$6 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $114 −$1 -1%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $40 +$2 +5%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 $0 +2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $34 +$151 +442%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $70 +$1 +2%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $163 −$14 -8%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $70 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 12m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $76 17m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $25 18m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $25 18m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $25 18m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 85¢ $15 19m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $15 19m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $25 21m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $25 21m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $26 21m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 21m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 32m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 32m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 35¢ $26 36m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 34¢ $26 36m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 18¢ $24 50m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 17¢ $23 50m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $182 55m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 55m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 57m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 57m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 57m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 57m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 57m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $24 57m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $24 57m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 83¢ $171 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $23 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $25 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 96¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records