Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87fe…f3b4 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$270 (-15%) realized −$203 · open −$67
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$424
politics 37% +$1
other 10% −$9
tech 3% $0
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +9.5% -0.9% 45% 45% -37.1%
≤30d 11 +9.5% -0.9% 45% 45% -37.1%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 38% -36.4%
all 36 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 22% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 22% -29.5%
10% -26.0% 19% -36.3%
15% -33.2% 19% -42.4%
20% -39.7% 19% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$32 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage556d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 51¢ 56¢ $26 $28 +$3 (+11%)
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 43¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 50¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$50 +312%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$12 +230%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $57 −$55 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$19 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger Apr 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 30 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 10 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 10 $9 +$17 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 10 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 10 $60 −$10 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 10 $52 −$51 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 10 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 10 $50 +$42 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 10 $50 +$43 +86%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 10 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Nov 30 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? Nov 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 30 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Oct 04 $16 −$2 -14%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave qualify for the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Fina Sep 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Aug 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will Colombia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $41 −$3 -8%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election? May 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Alberta in the next May 05 $28 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 23 $594 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $39 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $17 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $26 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down $5 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.32 · official $30.70 · 107 history records