Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87fe…3cbe sports 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,888 (-3%) realized −$1,825 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%82W / 124L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$1,231est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$457
7 days−$1,243
14 days−$1,243
30 days−$1,832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$969
other 12% −$769
world 8% −$150
politics 6% −$237
tech 1% +$38
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 5% -15.5%
≤30d 160 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 3% -12.3%
≤90d 206 -3.7% -12.9% 40% 2% -12.1%
all 206 -3.7% -12.9% 40% 2% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 2% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 1% -20.5%
15% -28.9% 0% -28.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$510) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$31 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$946
Realized−$1,825
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses82 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,231
Open positions3
Markets (closed)206 / 209
History coverage51d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? No 94¢ 93¢ $937 $932 −$6 (-1%)
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? No 31¢ $41 $11 −$30 (-72%)
Will Josh Fryday win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? Yes 30¢ $31 $3 −$28 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $238 +$59 +25%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $1,149 −$303 -26%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $4 $0 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $500 −$28 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $430 +$57 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $38 $0 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $340 +$10 +3%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $460 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $123 −$3 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $910 +$90 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $930 −$350 -38%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $166 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $223 +$1 +0%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $640 +$8 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $850 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $154 −$24 -16%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $170 −$4 -2%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $530 +$13 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $550 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $400 $0 -0%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $170 $0 -0%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 14 $22 −$1 -5%
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $200 +$5 +2%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $186 −$6 -3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $118 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $110 −$3 -3%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $800 +$10 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $520 +$8 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $510 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $200 −$15 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $375 +$5 +1%
United States to win the second half? Jun 12 $22 $0 +2%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $500 $0 -0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $27 +$1 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $750 +$10 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $350 −$242 -69%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $13 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 33¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 34¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 36¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 34¢ $52 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $853 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $84 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 27¢ $9 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 27¢ $8 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 27¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 27¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 27¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 27¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 27¢ $222 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $4 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $4 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $473 9h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY No 75¢ $552 9h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? SELL No 15¢ $39 10h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? SELL No 15¢ $68 10h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? SELL No 15¢ $9 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 50¢ $188 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $192 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $8 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $31 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $68 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $500 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $13 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 93¢ $25 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $945.94 · official $945.99 (match) · 1209 history records