Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x87ff…8c2c other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$152 (-2%) realized −$161 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days+$99
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$28
other 29% −$3
sports 5% −$116
crypto 4% +$37
politics 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.9% -11.2% 71% 71% -4.3%
≤30d 7 -1.9% -11.2% 71% 71% -4.3%
≤90d 12 -16.6% -24.6% 58% 42% -12.1%
all 12 -16.6% -24.6% 58% 42% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 42% -12.1%
10% -31.8% 17% -20.5%
15% -38.4% 17% -28.2%
20% -44.4% 17% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$100 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$509
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage60d
Avg bet$414
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $300 $309 +$9 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$84 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $212 −$191 -90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $311 +$37 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $271 +$37 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $702 +$84 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $500 +$30 +6%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $202 −$200 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 29 $3,100 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $104 +$8 +8%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 34h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $111 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $230 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $311 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $530 38d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 72¢ $202 51d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $500 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $3,100 55d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $3,000 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $111 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $100 57d
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? BUY No 17¢ $100 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $104 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.00 · official $509.00 (match) · 31 history records