trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 25 | -8.3% | -17.0% | 44% | 4% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.0% | 4% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -24.9% | 0% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -32.2% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -38.8% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $49 | $49 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $36 | +$3 | +7% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $10 | −$1 | -7% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 22 | $22 | −$2 | -8% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 21 | $44 | +$1 | +2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 21 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Jun 27 | $9 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? | Jun 26 | $23 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 18 | $2 | $0 | -22% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 13 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 12 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? | Jun 12 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 09 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? | Jun 09 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | Jun 07 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lois Boisson win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 05 | $9 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect | Jun 05 | $6 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr | Jun 05 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | May 23 | $3 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? | May 23 | $24 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? | May 22 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese | May 21 | $25 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 18 | $25 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | May 16 | $2 | $0 | -18% |
| Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? | May 16 | $3 | $0 | +12% |