Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x8805…721f crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$193 (+4%) realized +$189 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%108W / 63L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days+$48
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$34
sports 25% +$157
other 11% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 +3.2% -6.6% 63% 59% -8.6%
≤30d 171 +4.5% -5.4% 63% 60% -7.1%
≤90d 171 +4.5% -5.4% 63% 60% -7.1%
all 171 +4.5% -5.4% 63% 60% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 60% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 53% -16.0%
15% -22.7% 43% -24.1%
20% -30.3% 29% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$189
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses108 / 63
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage11d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 82¢ 100¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $95 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$41 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $76 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $116 +$25 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $76 −$21 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $127 −$40 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $76 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $61 +$24 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $113 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$36 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $121 −$16 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$33 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$14 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.27 · official $22.80 · 463 history records