Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8806…d9f1 crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-10%) realized +$74 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$121
crypto 8% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -22.7% -30.1% 50% 38% -27.0%
≤30d 8 -22.7% -30.1% 50% 38% -27.0%
≤90d 8 -22.7% -30.1% 50% 38% -27.0%
all 8 -22.7% -30.1% 50% 38% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 38% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 38% -34.0%
15% -42.9% 38% -40.4%
20% -48.5% 25% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 7¢ 5¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-30%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Anna Blinkova 74¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 7¢ $9 1m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 4¢ $9 2m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Anna Blinkova 74¢ $119 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 38¢ $103 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 33¢ $16 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 20¢ $67 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Anna Blinkova 78¢ $67 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 42¢ $86 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 62¢ $86 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Anna Blinkova 51¢ $45 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 62¢ $88 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.20 · official $6.20 (match) · 23 history records