Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8808…82d0 crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$14 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%165W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$30
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$1
finance 2% $0
politics 1% −$4
other 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -2.4% -11.7% 95% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 170 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 170 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.4%
all 170 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses165 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage11d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sam McCown be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 97¢ 76¢ $17 $14 −$4 (-22%)
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.45 · official $38.45 (match) · 339 history records