Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x880c…cc9a crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$254 (-18%) realized −$252 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$49
other 41% −$202
world 9% −$84
sports 6% +$87
economics 1% −$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.3% -3.9% 50% 50% -18.4%
≤30d 10 +6.3% -3.9% 50% 50% -18.4%
≤90d 10 +6.3% -3.9% 50% 50% -18.4%
all 36 -27.7% -34.6% 44% 25% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 25% -27.2%
10% -40.9% 19% -34.2%
15% -46.6% 17% -40.5%
20% -51.8% 11% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage298d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $63 $61 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $34 +$30 +88%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $86 −$49 -57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$24 -77%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $92 +$11 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $59 +$32 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$23 +62%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 19 $118 −$82 -70%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 09 $30 −$27 -90%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jan 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October? Oct 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP dip to $2.70 in October? Oct 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP dip to $2.60 in October? Oct 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025? Oct 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September? Sep 25 $21 $0 +2%
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Sep 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Sep 23 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 5PM ET Sep 06 $43 −$11 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 5? Sep 05 $34 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 3PM ET Sep 05 $32 +$3 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on August 31 at 4 Sep 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 11PM ET Sep 04 $120 −$58 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4PM ET Aug 31 $4 +$1 +28%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 31 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on August 31 at 4 Aug 31 $85 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $111K on August 29 at 4 Aug 29 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin above $110K on August 29? Aug 29 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 12AM ET Aug 29 $73 +$4 +5%
Nebraska vs. Cincinnati Aug 29 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 3AM ET Aug 29 $3 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $64 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 9h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 9h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 9h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $86 10h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 10h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 12h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $92 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $59 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $36 3d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $36 3d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $118 164d
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 164d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 164d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 164d
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 164d
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 164d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 164d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $40 164d
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 164d
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October? BUY No 73¢ $2 260d
Will XRP dip to $2.70 in October? BUY No 42¢ $2 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.00 · official $61.00 (match) · 244 history records