Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x880d…adb6 weather 648 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,310 (+0%) realized +$1,681 · open −$371
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate98%572W / 13L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$624per market
Trades / day68.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% +$10,814
world 10% −$4,595
other 8% +$3,631
crypto 4% +$5,190
finance 1% +$351
tech 1% −$2,863
economics 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 403 -0.9% -10.4% 98% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 585 +5.4% -4.6% 98% 5% -6.6%
all 585 +5.4% -4.6% 98% 5% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 5% -6.6%
10% -13.7% 3% -15.5%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 3% -23.7%
20% -29.7% 2% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$934 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$8,308
Realized+$1,681
Unrealized−$371
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses572 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions96
Markets (closed)585 / 648
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$624
Trades / day68.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 96 History 585 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,388 $1,389 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $341 $341 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $302 $302 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $255 $254 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 40°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $194 $195 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $194 $195 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $194 $195 +$0 (+0%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? No 91¢ 93¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $145 $145 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 74¢ 70¢ $134 $128 −$6 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C or higher on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by June 30? No 87¢ 92¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $42-$49 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $49-$56 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C or below on June 1 Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $704 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 102°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $183 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $538 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 1 Jun 15 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 96°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $210 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $232 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $393 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 15 $222 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 9°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $393 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 29°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $577 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $146 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 1 Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on June 1 Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on June Jun 14 $207 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1,651 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $638 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $1,258 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $234 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or below on June 1 Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on June Jun 13 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 36°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1,125 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $47 33m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $49 33m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $142 45m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $43 49m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $286 50m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $632 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on June 1 BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 24°C or below on June BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 24°C or below on June BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $284 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on June 1 BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $97 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,307.51 · official $8,308.32 (match) · 3500 history records