Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x880d…70e5 crypto 344 markets active 3h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-11%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%200W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$112
14 days−$131
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$73
sports 17% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -23.2% -30.5% 43% 42% -38.1%
≤30d 344 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 53% -21.3%
≤90d 344 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 53% -21.3%
all 344 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 53% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 53% -21.3%
10% -25.5% 48% -28.8%
15% -32.7% 35% -35.7%
20% -39.3% 21% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses200 / 144
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)344 / 344
History coverage25d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 344 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +28%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $2 +$5 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +25%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana Jun 17 $23 −$20 -87%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $8 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $4 +$5 +109%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $13 −$4 -31%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $3 +$1 +43%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $10 −$5 -54%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $2 +$7 +262%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Ruben Lebron Puerta vs Rafael Giotis Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $18 −$6 -34%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Criollos de Caguas Jun 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $5 +$5 +109%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 14 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 29¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 16h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 50¢ $2 23h
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana SELL Maccabi Raanana 5¢ $3 23h
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana BUY Maccabi Raanana 20¢ $1 24h
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana BUY Maccabi Raanana 29¢ $1 24h
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana BUY Maccabi Raanana 27¢ $1 24h
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana BUY Maccabi Raanana 31¢ $3 24h
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana BUY Maccabi Raanana 32¢ $2 24h
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana BUY Maccabi Raanana 48¢ $6 24h
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana BUY Maccabi Raanana 43¢ $8 24h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 83¢ $8 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 16¢ $2 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 15¢ $2 27h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $9 27h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 37¢ $3 27h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 47¢ $4 28h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 41¢ $9 42h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 59¢ $2 42h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 54¢ $2 43h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 54¢ $3 43h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 60¢ $7 43h
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf SELL Jeffrey John Wolf 100¢ $4 44h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $10 45h
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 69¢ $3 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 784 history records