Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x880d…39bc sports 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,166 (-6%) realized −$1,502 · open +$336
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%40W / 35L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$590now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$621
7 days−$1,287
14 days−$1,287
30 days−$1,287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,063
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -19.0% -26.8% 52% 48% -16.7%
≤30d 61 -19.0% -26.8% 52% 48% -16.7%
≤90d 75 -17.3% -25.2% 53% 48% -15.9%
all 75 -17.3% -25.2% 53% 48% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 48% -15.9%
10% -32.4% 44% -24.0%
15% -38.9% 33% -31.3%
20% -44.9% 25% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$213 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$590
Realized−$1,502
Unrealized+$336
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses40 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage37d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner PlayTime 43¢ 100¢ $254 $590 +$336 (+132%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $222 +$27 +12%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $281 −$277 -99%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $751 +$267 +36%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $409 +$390 +95%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $94 +$155 +165%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $304 +$96 +31%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $261 +$239 +92%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $391 −$389 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $575 +$18 +3%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $461 +$238 +52%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $361 +$79 +22%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $298 +$81 +27%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $272 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $155 −$153 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $490 −$487 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $532 −$527 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $198 −$197 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $596 +$257 +43%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $239 −$235 -98%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $690 +$397 +58%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $361 −$46 -13%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $332 +$167 +50%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $390 +$109 +28%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $244 −$242 -99%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Jun 15 $465 +$201 +43%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $181 −$179 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $309 −$308 -100%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $426 −$426 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $323 +$177 +55%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $108 +$120 +111%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $292 +$258 +88%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $340 +$220 +65%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $278 +$44 +16%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $154 +$128 +83%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $369 +$121 +33%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $269 +$151 +56%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $208 +$63 +30%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $754 −$751 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $396 +$672 +170%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $123 −$121 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $273 −$271 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $107 −$106 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $485 −$483 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $257 +$232 +90%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$36 -98%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $176 −$176 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 42¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 42¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 42¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 42¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 42¢ $43 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 43¢ $44 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 44¢ $66 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 44¢ $45 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $250 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 89¢ $222 7h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 76¢ $38 7h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 76¢ $38 7h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 73¢ $128 7h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 73¢ $4 7h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 73¢ $3 7h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 73¢ $12 7h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 12¢ $25 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 27¢ $0 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 31¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 31¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 31¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 31¢ $23 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 31¢ $22 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 31¢ $12 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 31¢ $7 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 31¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 31¢ $7 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 35¢ $89 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 35¢ $89 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $1,018 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $589.71 · official $589.71 (match) · 494 history records