Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
88 0x880e…54ed sports 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$17,425 (+15%) realized +$17,951 · open −$526
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%116W / 131L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$350est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$13,814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days+$3,878
14 days+$4,412
30 days+$6,380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$23,146
crypto 25% −$5,609
other 10% −$602
finance 1% +$294
world 1% +$279
politics 0% −$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +28.9% +16.6% 44% 44% +18.8%
≤30d 77 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 36% +15.7%
≤90d 132 +32.4% +19.8% 46% 46% +15.9%
all 247 +13.3% +2.5% 47% 46% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 46% +5.7%
10% -7.3% 41% -4.4%
15% -16.2% 37% -13.6%
20% -24.5% 33% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$444 vs −$258 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$13,814
Realized+$17,951
Unrealized−$526
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses116 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$350
Open positions11
Markets (closed)247 / 258
History coverage151d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $10,000 $10,160 +$160 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 57¢ $1,055 $953 −$102 (-10%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $967 $779 −$188 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $736 $668 −$69 (-9%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $709 $512 −$197 (-28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $250 $236 −$14 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 44¢ $249 $218 −$31 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 31¢ $184 $158 −$26 (-14%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $93 +$13 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ $100 $27 −$73 (-73%)
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $337 +$139 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $132 +$189 +143%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $54 −$53 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $115 −$112 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$148 +146%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $84 −$82 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $24 +$145 +603%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $19 +$17 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 15 $508 +$512 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,333 −$1,314 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $608 −$594 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $746 −$728 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $7,331 +$5,195 +71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $100 +$79 +79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$142 +567%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $131 −$128 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $184 +$345 +188%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $300 +$279 +93%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $206 +$100 +48%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $122 +$285 +234%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $302 +$317 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $62 −$42 -68%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $59 −$56 -94%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $168 +$408 +244%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $316 −$310 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $19 −$19 -97%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $107 +$72 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $35 −$3 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $99 −$5 -5%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $31 34m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $477 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $337 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $322 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $132 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $54 47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $12 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $103 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $33 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $51 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $28 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $169 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $1,318 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 11¢ $35 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler $26 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $12,526 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 36¢ $145 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $51 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $51 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $131 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $528 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $184 6d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $579 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,814.02 · official $13,815.27 (match) · 670 history records