Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8810…0682 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$3
other 12% +$1
politics 3% −$3
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 18 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 11% -9.1%
all 32 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 6% -9.5%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.1%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage470d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $54 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $60 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $35 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $63 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $59 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $66 −$8 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $7 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $48 +$13 +28%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $44 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 05 $1 $0 -11%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 04 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $7 −$1 -22%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $4 $0 -2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jul 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $9 $0 +4%
Will Matt Olson lead the MLB in RBI's? Apr 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $55 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $9 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $27 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $55 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $54 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $11 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $37 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $60 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $2 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $58 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $60 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $31 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $30 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $41 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $61 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $21 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $13 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $35 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 93¢ $58 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records