Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8812…c41a sports 1372 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 229d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$320 (-3%) realized −$264 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%476W / 737L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,203
7 days+$1,328
14 days+$1,325
30 days+$1,325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$887
other 37% +$209
world 0% −$7
politics 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$5
weather 0% −$6
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 +31.3% +18.8% 66% 65% +15.7%
≤30d 395 +24.9% +13.0% 64% 63% +12.4%
≤90d 575 +23.7% +11.9% 57% 56% +10.4%
all 1213 -17.9% -25.7% 39% 37% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 37% +4.8%
10% -32.8% 35% -5.2%
15% -39.3% 30% -14.4%
20% -45.2% 26% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$1,131
Realized−$264
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses476 / 737
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions38
Markets (closed)1213 / 1372
History coverage229d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 1213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 34¢ 30¢ $289 $256 −$33 (-11%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners Over 59¢ 63¢ $74 $79 +$6 (+8%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals No 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 56¢ 34¢ $43 $27 −$17 (-38%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 47¢ 52¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Enner Valencia: 3+ shots Yes 50¢ 50¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 52¢ 100¢ $13 $25 +$12 (+92%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 53¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 56¢ $13 $23 +$9 (+70%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 44¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-14%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners Over 41¢ 24¢ $29 $17 −$12 (-41%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 Under 58¢ 59¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 100¢ $3 $15 +$12 (+335%)
Kai Havertz: 3+ shots Yes 56¢ 50¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-12%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Deep Cross Gaming 51¢ 56¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Under 46¢ 45¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals No 64¢ 44¢ $18 $13 −$6 (-31%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 58¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots Yes 61¢ 50¢ $14 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Under 38¢ 39¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 30¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Under 59¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+28%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 452 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-08? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $95 +$48 +51%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 25 $41 +$22 +55%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $34 +$16 +46%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng Jun 25 $41 +$10 +24%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots Jun 25 $3 +$2 +52%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots Jun 25 $3 +$2 +72%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 25 $2 +$3 +144%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $3 +$2 +85%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $4 +$3 +75%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $7 +$8 +119%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $10 +$10 +107%
Esmir Bajraktarević: 2+ shots Jun 25 $12 +$8 +72%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 25 $17 +$6 +37%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots Jun 25 $11 +$13 +119%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 25 $12 +$17 +138%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 25 $21 +$14 +65%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots Jun 25 $10 +$30 +300%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots Jun 25 $15 +$28 +186%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots Jun 25 $25 +$25 +100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 25 $29 +$25 +85%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$24 +79%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 25 $77 +$27 +35%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $95 +$137 +144%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $22 −$21 -99%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Team to Take First Corner Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Robin Montgomery vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 24 $5 +$1 +23%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2 +$5 +212%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $24 +$16 +67%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Esmir Bajraktarević: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Team to Take First Corner Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $2 +$1 +67%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $3 +$2 +75%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 24 $4 +$1 +27%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 24 $3 +$2 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 51m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $11 52m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $5 53m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $0 59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $2 59m
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 64¢ $18 59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $6 59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $3 59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $3 59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $13 59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $3 59m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 56¢ $41 59m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 56¢ $3 59m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 25¢ $13 1h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots BUY Yes 62¢ $6 1h
Kai Havertz: 3+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $17 1h
Enner Valencia: 3+ shots BUY Yes 50¢ $26 1h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 25¢ $1 2h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $0 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 2h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $4 2h
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2h
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots BUY Yes 60¢ $3 2h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,130.75 · official $1,130.76 (match) · 3500 history records