Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
88 0x8815…5295 crypto 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+5%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%114W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$176
14 days+$176
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$66
sports 43% −$5
other 10% +$143
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -20.2% -27.8% 38% 34% +16.1%
≤30d 89 -20.9% -28.5% 38% 35% +15.6%
≤90d 154 -15.1% -23.2% 42% 40% +2.0%
all 248 -14.0% -22.2% 46% 42% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -4.2%
10% -29.6% 33% -13.4%
15% -36.4% 25% -21.8%
20% -42.7% 18% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses114 / 134
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage179d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +145%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 +$44 +525%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $16 +$24 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $24 −$13 -55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$4 -29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$15 +161%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $33 +$37 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 +$18 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $8 +$7 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $9 +$11 +117%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$40 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$15 +300%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$10 +66%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 3¢ $0 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $6 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 75¢ $52 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 28h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $19 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $25 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 34¢ $9 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 676 history records