Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8816…7082 sports 761 markets active 0h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$637 (-1%) realized −$637 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%391W / 369L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$71
sports 41% −$842
crypto 9% +$106
world 3% +$221
politics 1% −$93
tech 1% −$16
economics 1% +$54
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% -8.7%
≤30d 27 -4.9% -14.0% 52% 52% -6.1%
≤90d 94 -21.5% -28.9% 41% 40% -19.7%
all 760 -3.0% -12.2% 51% 46% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 46% -10.4%
10% -20.6% 38% -19.0%
15% -28.3% 29% -26.8%
20% -35.3% 23% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$37 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$637
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses391 / 369
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)760 / 761
History coverage285d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 760 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 $0 -1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$11 +53%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$72 +118%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$31 +103%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$42 +103%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 +$9 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $40 +$21 +53%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $35 −$14 -38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $35 +$19 +54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$30 +99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 +$17 +41%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$3 -15%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$28 +91%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$7 +32%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $44 +$25 +56%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score May 09 $19 −$19 -99%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 May 09 $23 −$3 -15%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 May 09 $19 +$4 +19%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 09 $14 +$5 +36%
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5 May 09 $31 −$17 -55%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $25 −$25 -98%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5 May 03 $17 −$17 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 May 03 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 03 $30 −$2 -7%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $30 +$26 +84%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $14 −$14 -99%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 22 $57 −$56 -98%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score Apr 21 $45 +$68 +149%
Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score Apr 21 $28 −$28 -99%
Brentford FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 18 $20 −$20 -98%
ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score Apr 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $60 +$17 +28%
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $64 +$58 +91%
AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $55 +$26 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 52¢ $30 13m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 72¢ $31 22m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $30 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $20 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $133 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $62 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $61 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $20 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $82 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $41 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $39 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $41 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $62 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $40 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 35¢ $22 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $35 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $55 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $35 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $61 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 66¢ $28 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 87¢ $45 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.59 · official $39.59 (match) · 1680 history records