Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8816…7738 sports 1144 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,032 (-5%) realized −$17,042 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%578W / 563L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$1,938est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$48
14 days−$552
30 days−$2,130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$18,120
other 1% −$1,726
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 60% -6.2%
≤30d 146 -12.8% -21.1% 49% 47% -19.8%
≤90d 617 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 49% -17.5%
all 1141 -7.3% -16.2% 51% 50% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 50% -14.5%
10% -24.2% 48% -22.7%
15% -31.5% 46% -30.2%
20% -38.2% 39% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$267 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$17,042
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses578 / 563
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,938
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1141 / 1144
History coverage132d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 55¢ 60¢ $125 $135 +$10 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $76 +$55 +73%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $126 +$76 +60%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $81 +$46 +57%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $107 +$81 +75%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yufei Ren Jun 19 $56 −$56 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $30 +$27 +90%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Jun 19 $18 +$7 +40%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $273 −$270 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $83 +$57 +68%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $178 +$39 +22%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $90 +$88 +97%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $98 −$8 -8%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $66 +$32 +49%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $41 +$25 +60%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $18 −$18 -99%
ITF Zagreb: Dalila Jakupovic vs Amarissa Kiara Toth Jun 11 $34 −$34 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Aishi Das vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 11 $171 −$168 -99%
ITF Decatur: Maria Sholokhova vs Anna Rogers Jun 11 $609 −$310 -51%
ITF Wichita: Kenta Miyoshi vs Christian Langmo Jun 10 $395 +$230 +58%
ITF Decatur: Violeta Martinez vs Sara Daavettila Jun 10 $251 −$247 -98%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $152 +$252 +166%
ITF Wichita: William Manning vs Bruno Kuzuhara Jun 10 $149 −$147 -99%
ITF Wichita: Lucas Marionneau vs Daniel Milavsky Jun 10 $149 −$147 -98%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $510 +$39 +8%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $116 −$114 -98%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $161 −$46 -28%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $198 +$89 +45%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $98 +$59 +60%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $203 −$200 -99%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $97 −$95 -98%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $251 −$248 -99%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $145 +$112 +78%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $198 +$96 +48%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $290 +$154 +53%
Set Handicap: Salkova (-1.5) vs Trevisan (+1.5) Jun 10 $98 −$97 -99%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $202 +$93 +46%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $97 −$95 -98%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $176 −$174 -99%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $25 −$24 -98%
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 08 $23 −$23 -98%
ITF Caltanissetta: Luca Potenza vs Gabriele Piraino Jun 08 $123 −$123 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $249 +$129 +52%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $197 −$194 -98%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $161 +$36 +23%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis Jun 07 $101 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $127 46m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $131 52m
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Darja Vidmanova 97¢ $202 55m
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Darja Vidmanova 60¢ $126 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $127 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 57¢ $76 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 63¢ $81 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $188 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $107 4h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yufei Ren BUY Yufei Ren 56¢ $56 4h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 57¢ $10 12h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $15 12h
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies SELL Toronto Marlies 87¢ $25 12h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 52¢ $30 13h
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies BUY Toronto Marlies 61¢ $18 14h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 43¢ $27 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 37¢ $43 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 59¢ $228 6d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 61¢ $24 6d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 64¢ $22 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $139 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 58¢ $15 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 58¢ $68 6d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 79¢ $216 6d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 64¢ $178 6d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette SELL Magda Linette 100¢ $178 6d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 50¢ $90 6d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 56¢ $90 6d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 59¢ $98 7d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz SELL Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 69¢ $98 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.23 · official $137.50 · 2181 history records