Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8817…cda8
weather · 404 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,181 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,913 · open +$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,522
Realized+$1,913
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses364 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions21
Markets (closed)385 / 404
History coverage11d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day276.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 21 History 385 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$346
7 days+$874
14 days+$1,913
30 days+$1,913
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,176 $1,178 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,170 $1,170 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $520 $520 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $497 $502 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $398 $400 +$1 (+0%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 82¢ 87¢ $288 $305 +$17 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $271 $271 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $227 $237 +$10 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $223 $223 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $135 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $129 $129 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,045 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $827 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,006 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $193 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,044 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $822 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $313 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $143 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $670 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $628 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,394 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $307 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $572 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $66 −$59 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,154 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,136 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $117 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $516 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $178 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $565 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $306 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,192 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $769 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +546%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $44 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 3? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% +$1,593
politics 1% +$229
sports 0% +$113
other 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $509 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $237 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1,047 0m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $30 35m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $64 36m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 36m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $27 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $11 39m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 46m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 48m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $18 48m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $18 48m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $119 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $186 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $223 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $799 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 5% -8.9%
≤30d 385 +0.6% -8.9% 95% 5% -8.6%
≤90d 385 +0.6% -8.9% 95% 5% -8.6%
all 385 +0.6% -8.9% 95% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover276.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 5% -8.6%
10% -17.7% 3% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 1% -25.4%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,521.53 · official $5,520.96 (match) · 3500 history records