Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8817…aaa5 other 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 261L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$45
sports 25% −$21
politics 8% −$8
economics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 270 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)270 / 270
History coverage144d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 270 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $273 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $437 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $606 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $169 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $369 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $311 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $364 +$1 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $589 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $696 −$4 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $322 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $393 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $198 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $254 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $644 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $540 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $805 −$2 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $123 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $314 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 9m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 3h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 5h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 6h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 8h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 10h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 12h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 12h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 14h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $53 22h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $54 24h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 25h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 27h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 28h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 31h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 33h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 34h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 36h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 40h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 42h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 46h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1525 history records