Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x881a…c7f0 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$103 (-20%) realized −$102 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$117
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -14.9% -23.0% 58% 42% -47.8%
≤30d 22 -19.3% -27.0% 55% 32% -41.4%
≤90d 43 -26.6% -33.6% 53% 33% -35.2%
all 43 -26.6% -33.6% 53% 33% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 33% -35.2%
10% -39.9% 21% -41.4%
15% -45.7% 9% -47.1%
20% -51.1% 2% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage61d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$10 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 22 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 22 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 22 $21 −$16 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 22 $12 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 22 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 22 $74 −$72 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 22 $57 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 22 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 22 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 22 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 22 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 22 $55 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 22 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 22 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 16 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 16 $11 −$5 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.91 · official $7.81 (match) · 127 history records