Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x881b…c85c other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+4%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$70
other 32% −$11
sports 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 18 +5.6% -4.4% 28% 11% -3.6%
≤90d 18 +5.6% -4.4% 28% 11% -3.6%
all 48 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 10% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 10% -5.6%
10% -16.7% 4% -14.6%
15% -24.7% 2% -22.9%
20% -32.1% 2% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.32 per $1 lost it wins $4.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage471d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $128 +$1 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $109 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $193 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $14 −$2 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $34 +$6 +17%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $110 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $80 +$68 +85%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $1 $0 +13%
UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $29 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 07 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? May 06 $11 +$1 +4%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $1 $0 +24%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 22 $12 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 01 $13 $0 +3%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $12 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $94 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $31 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $31 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $31 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $13 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $36 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $48 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $6 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $9 42h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 42h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $52 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $34 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $9 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $9 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $33 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $49 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $28 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $22 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $34 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records