Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x881b…0ad1 sports 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-4%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%197W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$71
14 days−$56
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$22
other 14% −$20
crypto 5% −$10
tech 3% +$4
politics 2% −$3
finance 1% $0
weather 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -38.4% -44.2% 30% 30% -44.3%
≤30d 122 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 50% -17.0%
≤90d 184 -2.9% -12.1% 53% 50% -13.2%
all 348 -2.5% -11.8% 57% 47% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 47% -14.1%
10% -20.2% 41% -22.3%
15% -27.9% 31% -29.9%
20% -35.0% 24% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses197 / 151
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)348 / 349
History coverage240d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$2 +78%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $2 −$1 -66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +74%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -26%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$7 +238%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $3 −$1 -30%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +58%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
CA Paranaense vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Goiás EC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 46m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 31¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $3 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $2 3h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 42¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 5h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Jack Pinnington Jones 15¢ $1 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 8h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 80¢ $4 8h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 67¢ $3 8h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 42¢ $2 9h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Martin Landaluce 61¢ $3 9h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 66¢ $3 9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 18h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $3 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $1 19h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 20h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 90¢ $4 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 22h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $3 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $2 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $4 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 73¢ $3 26h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $4 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $2 29h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.39 · official $3.39 (match) · 771 history records