Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

88 0x881c…b60a tech 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate94%15W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$308per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$2,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	8	+1.4%	-8.2%	88%	0%	-9.3%
≤90d	16	+1.0%	-8.6%	94%	0%	-9.1%
all	16	+1.0%	-8.6%	94%	0%	-9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.6%	0%	-9.1%
10%	-17.3%	0%	-17.8%
15%	-25.3%	0%	-25.7%
20%	-32.6%	0%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×56.12 per $1 lost it wins $56.12

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage

Net worth$2,060

Realized+$28

Unrealized+$9

Win rate (resolved)94%

Wins / losses15 / 1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)16 / 21

History coverage75d

Avg bet$308

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	99¢	100¢	$587	$590	+$3 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$502	$502	+$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$401	$399	−$2 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	94¢	95¢	$293	$294	+$2 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	96¢	98¢	$269	$275	+$6 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	Jun 19	$328	$0	-0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3	Jun 11	$9	+$1	+10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	Jun 11	$308	$0	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	Jun 11	$321	$0	+0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 11	$323	$0	+0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 11	$348	+$2	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	Jun 11	$355	+$1	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Jun 11	$382	+$2	+1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	May 10	$124	$0	+0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr	May 10	$197	+$1	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	May 10	$199	$0	+0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 10	$238	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	May 10	$253	+$1	+0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	May 10	$286	+$8	+3%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	May 10	$311	+$1	+0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 10	$424	+$2	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	98¢	$119	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	97¢	$208	1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	SELL No	100¢	$327	1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	94¢	$150	7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	89¢	$86	7d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$401	8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$502	8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	BUY No	100¢	$328	8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY No	99¢	$588	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$321	39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	99¢	$382	39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$308	39d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$355	39d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$323	39d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$348	39d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3	BUY Yes	90¢	$9	39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$124	74d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$253	74d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$212	74d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$212	74d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$238	74d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr	BUY No	100¢	$197	74d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	BUY Yes	97¢	$286	74d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$199	74d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$311	74d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,060.20 · official $2,060.20 (match) · 40 history records