Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x881e…70f8 sports 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,584 (+6%) realized +$1,458 · open +$126
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate84%105W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$837
sports 25% −$328
other 21% +$630
tech 8% +$193
politics 1% +$6
economics 1% +$69
world 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.6% -0.8% 100% 0% -0.8%
≤30d 5 +2.0% -7.8% 80% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 89 +0.2% -9.4% 79% 57% -7.8%
all 125 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 51% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 51% -4.5%
10% -15.1% 30% -13.6%
15% -23.3% 13% -22.0%
20% -30.9% 9% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$78 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$3,132
Realized+$1,458
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses105 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions19
Markets (closed)125 / 144
History coverage249d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $735 $897 +$162 (+22%)
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 96¢ $306 $318 +$12 (+4%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $235 $242 +$8 (+3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? No 94¢ 86¢ $243 $223 −$20 (-8%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 80¢ $155 $158 +$3 (+2%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 70¢ $191 $157 −$34 (-18%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 81¢ 80¢ $153 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 66¢ $171 $148 −$23 (-14%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $130 $140 +$11 (+8%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 97¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $104 $109 +$5 (+5%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $107 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $83 $94 +$11 (+13%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 96¢ $77 $75 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $79 $63 −$17 (-21%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 50¢ 50¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $334 +$32 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $221 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $109 +$2 +2%
Will Harry Kane record the most Player of the Match awards during the May 28 $402 −$16 -4%
Will Federico Dimarco lead Serie A in assists during the 2025-26 seaso May 25 $77 +$1 +1%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Alastair Gray May 20 $85 +$15 +18%
ITF Takasaki: Kyoka Okamura vs Valentina Ryser May 20 $73 −$73 -100%
ITF Luan: Yuichiro Inui vs Shixun Zhu May 20 $88 −$87 -100%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 20 $122 +$16 +14%
Will Borussia Dortmund place 2nd for the 2025-26 Bundesliga season? May 20 $177 +$5 +3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 20 $177 +$6 +4%
Will Lazio win Coppa Italia? May 20 $295 +$79 +27%
Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 May 20 $460 +$17 +4%
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion May 06 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio May 06 $200 −$199 -99%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Peñarol: Both Teams to Score May 06 $45 +$24 +52%
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-30? May 06 $123 +$16 +13%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Peñarol: O/U 3.5 May 06 $125 +$21 +17%
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5) May 06 $125 +$30 +24%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-04-30? May 06 $125 +$47 +38%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $168 +$50 +30%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-01? May 06 $178 +$55 +31%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-01? Apr 30 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $79 −$77 -98%
Henan FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $124 −$123 -99%
Will Henan FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $68 −$67 -98%
Independiente Medellín vs. Cusco FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: Independiente Medellín (-1.5) Apr 30 $78 −$77 -98%
SD Huesca vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $77 +$19 +24%
Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $77 +$19 +24%
SD Huesca vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $63 +$43 +67%
Spread: SD Huesca (-1.5) Apr 30 $99 +$14 +14%
Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) Apr 30 $99 +$21 +21%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $99 +$23 +23%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 30 $99 +$26 +27%
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) Apr 30 $99 +$28 +28%
Spread: Randers FC (-1.5) Apr 30 $123 +$26 +21%
Silkeborg IF vs. Randers FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $123 +$32 +26%
Will Randers FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 30 $123 +$76 +62%
Silkeborg IF vs. Randers FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 30 $177 +$30 +17%
Will Silkeborg IF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 30 $77 +$145 +188%
Will SD Huesca vs. Real Zaragoza end in a draw? Apr 26 $47 −$46 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw? Apr 26 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $55 +$3 +6%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $80 +$21 +26%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Apr 26 $99 +$16 +16%
Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $99 +$32 +32%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $123 +$13 +11%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Apr 26 $123 +$17 +14%
Spread: Feyenoord Rotterdam (-2.5) Apr 26 $123 +$18 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $55 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $154 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $107 1h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $334 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $221 22d
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY No 92¢ $307 23d
Will Harry Kane record the most Player of the Match awards during the SELL Yes 71¢ $386 23d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $0 29d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $19 30d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $15 30d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $17 30d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $4 30d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $21 30d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $18 30d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $7 30d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $4 30d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $21 30d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $28 31d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $105 31d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $24 31d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $84 31d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $17 31d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $80 31d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $163 31d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $172 31d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $105 31d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $130 31d
ITF Takasaki: Kyoka Okamura vs Valentina Ryser BUY Kyoka Okamura 73¢ $1 31d
ITF Takasaki: Kyoka Okamura vs Valentina Ryser BUY Kyoka Okamura 73¢ $72 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,132.27 · official $3,132.44 (match) · 506 history records