trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 4 | -83.8% | -85.4% | 0% | 0% | -86.3% |
| all | 19 | -95.4% | -95.8% | 0% | 0% | -99.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -95.8% | 0% | -99.0% |
| 10% | -96.2% | 0% | -99.1% |
| 15% | -96.6% | 0% | -99.2% |
| 20% | -96.9% | 0% | -99.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 8¢ | $321 | $373 | +$52 (+16%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $94 | $91 | −$4 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 15 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 15 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 15 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? | Apr 01 | $3 | −$1 | -35% |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Mar 05 | $334 | −$334 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? | Feb 28 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | Jan 16 | $10 | −$8 | -76% |
| Major cyberattack on Iran in June? | Jun 21 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026? | Jun 21 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? | Jun 21 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| China x Philippines military clash by December 31? | Jun 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Pakistan invade India before July? | Jun 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | Jun 21 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | Jun 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Jun 21 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? | Jun 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will India invade Pakistan before July? | Jun 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? | Jun 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | Jun 21 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |