Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8820…7eb5 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$350 (+8%) realized +$349 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$448
other 8% −$87
finance 4% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -6.5%
≤30d 3 +26.9% +14.8% 67% 67% +53.5%
≤90d 14 -15.3% -23.4% 36% 36% +17.2%
all 34 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 35% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 35% -2.7%
10% -25.4% 26% -12.0%
15% -32.6% 21% -20.5%
20% -39.2% 18% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$36 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$349
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions8
Markets (closed)34 / 42
History coverage214d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $223 +$168 +76%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $1,323 +$407 +31%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 23 $50 +$100 +200%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Nov 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) Nov 22 $20 +$12 +57%
Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 22 $17 +$3 +20%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Nov 21 $253 −$253 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) Nov 21 $250 −$13 -5%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports (BO3) Nov 21 $362 +$52 +14%
Kings vs. Sharks Nov 21 $178 +$37 +21%
Rangers vs. Avalanche Nov 21 $161 +$16 +10%
Bills vs. Texans Nov 21 $327 −$56 -17%
76ers vs. Bucks Nov 21 $50 +$17 +33%
Hawks vs. Spurs Nov 21 $109 +$38 +35%
Wizards vs. Raptors Nov 21 $168 −$6 -3%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Nov 20 $200 +$3 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 20? Nov 20 $96 −$37 -38%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) Nov 20 $99 +$6 +6%
Kings vs. Thunder Nov 20 $90 +$6 +6%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 20 $82 +$8 +10%
Thunder vs. Pelicans Nov 18 $77 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $347 19d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 57¢ $101 20d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $43 30d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $101 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 31d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 31d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 31d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 34d
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 34d
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 34d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 35d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 35d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes $5 35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 35d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 35d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 35d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 35d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 35d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 35d
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 40d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 40d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,730 45d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 44¢ $323 55d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 57¢ $150 57d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $8 69d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $14 69d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.58 · official $182.58 (match) · 125 history records