Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8822…6298 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$290 (+1%) realized +$288 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%40W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$606per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$786now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days+$19
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$123
economics 35% +$121
other 13% +$41
politics 6% −$3
tech 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 90% 0% -8.7%
all 43 +1.6% -8.1% 93% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 2% -8.5%
10% -16.9% 2% -17.3%
15% -24.9% 2% -25.3%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,104) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×15.14 per $1 lost it wins $15.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$786
Realized+$288
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses40 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage250d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $663 $663 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $122 $124 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 23 $397 +$3 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 23 $261 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $442 +$14 +3%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 27 $777 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 18 $563 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 04 $562 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $558 +$4 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $535 +$23 +4%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 01 $536 +$9 +2%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 01 $205 −$14 -7%
SBF released from custody in 2026? Mar 24 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Feb 25 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Feb 25 $535 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Feb 15 $196 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 13? Feb 14 $534 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 11 $493 +$4 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $1,330 +$4 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $99 −$4 -4%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Jan 30 $1,823 +$2 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $117 +$46 +39%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $1,330 +$33 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $1,314 +$16 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $1,266 +$49 +4%
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? Dec 18 $112 +$6 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $110 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Nov 27 $1,354 +$22 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 23 $628 +$9 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Nov 23 $700 +$17 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 15 $446 +$3 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $170? Nov 15 $47 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $175? Nov 15 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November Nov 11 $1,311 +$9 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 10 $534 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $118k November 3-9? Nov 10 $1,104 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 3-9? Nov 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9? Nov 08 $1,301 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 5? Nov 06 $1,303 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $2,597 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 19? Nov 02 $108 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 02 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 19? Oct 19 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $663 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $399 46h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $4 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $14 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $102 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $70 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $122 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $123 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $122 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $120 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $119 23d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $397 25d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $221 25d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $40 25d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $779 29d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $777 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $563 38d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $71 41d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $1 41d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $141 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $563 52d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $562 60d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $562 61d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $558 80d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $3 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $786.48 · official $786.48 (match) · 169 history records