Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8824…ff96
crypto · 21 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 3 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 75¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$2
other 13% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 28% -13.5%
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 28% -13.5%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 28% -13.5%
all 18 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 28% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 28% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 17% -21.7%
15% -25.8% 17% -29.3%
20% -33.0% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.83 · official $17.55 (match) · 58 history records