Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8826…76d4
crypto · 960 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$29 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$55 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses514 / 430
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions16
Markets (closed)944 / 960
History coverage82d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 16 History 944 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 54¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+83%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 60¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Los Angeles Angels 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $8 +$7 +90%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +398%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +595%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $2 $0 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $1 $0 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $1 $0 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 27 $2 +$1 +46%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Gr May 25 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $1 +$2 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% −$15
sports 20% −$41
other 9% +$6
culture 0% −$6
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 33m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 96¢ $15 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $2 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 11h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 16h
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 16h
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 54¢ $1 16h
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 18¢ $1 16h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 32h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $2 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +25.1% +13.2% 48% 44% +15.9%
≤30d 91 -3.0% -12.3% 44% 43% -11.4%
≤90d 944 -2.7% -11.9% 54% 53% -12.0%
all 944 -2.7% -11.9% 54% 53% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 53% -12.0%
10% -20.4% 48% -20.4%
15% -28.1% 42% -28.1%
20% -35.1% 35% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.73 · official $20.73 (match) · 1861 history records