Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
88 0x8826…f7a3 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-8%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$82
other 20% $0
politics 18% $0
economics 17% $0
world 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -18.3% -26.1% 40% 20% -18.9%
all 9 -25.4% -32.5% 22% 11% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 11% -16.9%
10% -39.0% 11% -24.9%
15% -44.9% 11% -32.1%
20% -50.3% 11% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$38 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage113d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $101 −$100 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 23 $111 −$110 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 07 $223 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 01 $215 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 22 $120 +$130 +108%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $6 −$2 -37%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 06 $188 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 27 $209 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 1h
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 48¢ $101 38d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 59¢ $111 55d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $222 72d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $223 76d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $215 77d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $215 79d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 48¢ $120 93d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 98d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 101d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $188 104d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $188 105d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 110d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 110d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $209 110d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $209 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.01 · official $26.01 (match) · 17 history records