Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

88 0x8826…4773 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$131 (+10%) realized +$142 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate46%11W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day19.7pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-6.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+3.9%	-6.0%	46%	42%	+2.9%
≤30d	24	+3.9%	-6.0%	46%	42%	+2.9%
≤90d	24	+3.9%	-6.0%	46%	42%	+2.9%
all	24	+3.9%	-6.0%	46%	42%	+2.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover19.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.0%	42%	+2.9%
10%	-15.0%	38%	-7.0%
15%	-23.2%	38%	-16.0%
20%	-30.8%	33%	-24.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +29% → late -21% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$25 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.46 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$214

Realized+$142

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses11 / 13

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions5

Markets (closed)24 / 29

History coverage2d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day19.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$75	$74	−$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	69¢	$55	$55	+$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$35	$35	+$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 21	$201	+$24	+12%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$86	+$8	+9%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$20	+$30	+146%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$202	+$100	+50%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Jun 21	$25	−$25	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 21	$21	−$21	-100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$20	+$15	+73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$40	+$24	+60%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$21	+$146	+712%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$20	+$13	+65%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?	Jun 20	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan?	Jun 20	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$25	−$25	-98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$51	−$51	-100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$51	−$41	-81%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$91	+$78	+86%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$21	+$18	+86%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	Jun 20	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$25	+$19	+73%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 20	$51	−$51	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Saudi Arabia	30¢	$22	2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	70¢	$50	2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	89¢	$201	2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	46¢	$36	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$56	3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$35	3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$76	3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	SELL Japan	98¢	$50	12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$303	12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	39¢	$20	14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	62¢	$15	25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	60¢	$20	27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	27h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Ecuador	68¢	$25	28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	62¢	$25	28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$30	28h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	8¢	$15	30h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	7¢	$15	30h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	30h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	30h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	30h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.21 · official $214.25 (match) · 63 history records