Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8827…5d62 weather 523 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$2,761 (+15%) realized +$225 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%235W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day89.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$309
7 days−$3,087
14 days−$2,167
30 days−$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -48.5% -53.4% 28% 28% -45.9%
≤30d 461 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 47% -13.7%
≤90d 496 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 47% -8.5%
all 496 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 47% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 47% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 41% -17.3%
15% -28.6% 28% -25.3%
20% -35.6% 19% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$25 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized+$225
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses235 / 261
Open positions28
Markets (closed)496 / 523
History coverage35d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day89.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $16 $79 +$62 (+381%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 73¢ 100¢ $55 $76 +$20 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 14? No 67¢ 100¢ $51 $76 +$25 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 63¢ 100¢ $40 $64 +$23 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 74¢ 100¢ $34 $46 +$12 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 69¢ 64¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 64¢ 50¢ $49 $38 −$11 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 14? Yes 8¢ 100¢ $1 $16 +$14 (+1071%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 66¢ 68¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 55¢ 30¢ $8 $5 −$4 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 69¢ 67¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 82¢ 87¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 71¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 64¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? No 56¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $9 +$6 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $16 +$43 +276%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $58 +$15 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $20 +$51 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $26 +$20 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $45 +$31 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $32 +$45 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $58 +$19 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$30 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$36 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $70 +$20 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $55 −$54 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $34 −$33 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +103%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $75 +$26 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $23 +$80 +349%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$30 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$59 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$47 +87%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $45 −$45 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $59 +$23 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $79 +$22 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $17 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $59 +$24 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $33 +$69 +208%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $2 34m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 46¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 46¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 44¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 44¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 46¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 58¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 59¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 59¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 42¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.90 · official $544.90 (match) · 3500 history records