Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8827…b8bb other 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$41
sports 22% −$18
economics 7% −$9
politics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
culture 6% −$6
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 191 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage129d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $221 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $307 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $265 $0 +0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $158 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $309 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $452 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $173 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $380 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $393 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $539 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $192 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $308 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $523 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $420 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $228 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 34m
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 6h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 7h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 9h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 14h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 15h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 17h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 20h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 20h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 22h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 24h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 25h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $25 25h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $23 27h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 29h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 29h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 31h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 42h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 44h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $6 46h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.20 · official $47.20 (match) · 1328 history records