Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8827…2132 politics 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$1
politics 33% −$1
other 24% $0
tech 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.5%
all 25 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage178d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $91 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 29 $91 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $93 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $187 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $187 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $187 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $187 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $187 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $187 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $188 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 07 $188 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 03 $188 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 02 $188 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 30 $181 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $184 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $183 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $92 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $91 14h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $91 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $91 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $91 13d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $91 13d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $91 27d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $91 27d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $91 41d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $91 41d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $91 46d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $91 47d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $92 67d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $93 68d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $93 70d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $93 70d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 88d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 88d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 97d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 98d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $187 101d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $95 101d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $2 101d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $3 101d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $87 101d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $187 103d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $187 103d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 104d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 104d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $187 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records