Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x882b…2777 sports 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$350 (+15%) realized +$348 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%79W / 72L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$184
14 days+$346
30 days+$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$157
other 40% +$213
world 3% −$2
crypto 3% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +22.8% +11.1% 59% 59% +11.1%
≤30d 65 +10.4% -0.1% 58% 58% +11.5%
≤90d 96 +10.5% +0.0% 56% 56% +10.0%
all 151 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 52% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 52% +4.3%
10% -18.3% 52% -5.7%
15% -26.2% 52% -14.8%
20% -33.4% 45% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$348
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses79 / 72
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)151 / 155
History coverage239d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 60¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 38¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+7%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 Jun 19 $28 +$33 +116%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $28 −$28 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $29 +$17 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $34 +$35 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $32 +$39 +124%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 +$35 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$39 +119%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $29 +$25 +84%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $28 +$17 +60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $34 +$33 +99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $29 +$46 +162%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$73 +246%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
France leading at halftime? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $28 +$29 +103%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$30 +97%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $29 +$19 +64%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 Jun 13 $25 +$19 +77%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $28 −$28 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $29 +$30 +103%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $28 +$20 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $28 +$25 +88%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $29 +$30 +101%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $35 +$17 +48%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $28 +$26 +93%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $25 +$31 +121%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $29 −$29 -98%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $25 +$28 +110%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 −$20 -65%
Hungary leading at halftime? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Indonesia leading at halftime? Jun 09 $25 +$13 +50%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $27 −$27 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $30 +$13 +43%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $39 −$39 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $28 +$18 +64%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $30 +$30 +97%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$18 +59%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $25 +$16 +61%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $49 +$22 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 32m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $32 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $35 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $28 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $32 36h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $69 38h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $33 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 2d
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $34 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $71 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $32 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $71 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $33 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $33 3d
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 3d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 46¢ $28 3d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $28 4d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $28 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $67 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $28 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 5d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $34 5d
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.68 · official $126.68 (match) · 240 history records