Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
88 0x882f…a6b3 sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$296 (+18%) realized +$312 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%44W / 25L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$205
other 19% +$20
crypto 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +16.6% +5.5% 64% 62% +5.2%
≤30d 69 +16.6% +5.5% 64% 62% +5.2%
≤90d 69 +16.6% +5.5% 64% 62% +5.2%
all 69 +16.6% +5.5% 64% 62% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 62% +5.2%
10% -4.6% 54% -4.8%
15% -13.8% 43% -14.0%
20% -22.3% 38% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$312
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses44 / 25
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 64¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$8 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$16 +53%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$12 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 +$16 +53%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$9 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$9 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +95%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$19 +61%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$13 +63%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$2 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $29 +$17 +60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$12 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 +$17 +167%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$29 +28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$2 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $36 −$2 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$8 +80%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +299%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$30 -58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +151%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$37 +119%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $51 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $20 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $30 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $47 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes $0 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $10 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $31 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $31 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $40 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $31 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $31 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $20 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $34 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $20 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $20 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $31 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $15 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.70 · official $53.04 (match) · 143 history records