Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x882f…50b8 sports 401 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$351 (-2%) realized −$351 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%195W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$319
14 days−$283
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$275
other 3% +$101
crypto 1% −$18
world 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +22.6% +10.9% 57% 57% +15.2%
≤30d 32 +12.1% +1.5% 53% 53% -21.0%
≤90d 208 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 44% -16.3%
all 396 -5.0% -14.1% 49% 48% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 48% -10.8%
10% -22.3% 46% -19.3%
15% -29.8% 41% -27.1%
20% -36.7% 33% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$37 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$351
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses195 / 201
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)396 / 401
History coverage142d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 396 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $49 +$18 +38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $50 +$20 +39%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$59 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $43 +$51 +120%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $92 +$51 +55%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 −$4 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $30 −$2 -8%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 19 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $29 +$55 +192%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$33 +217%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$23 +33%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $57 +$65 +114%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $33 +$23 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$34 +70%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 −$15 -33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$52 +57%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$93 +92%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$48 +249%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $223 −$223 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $298 −$298 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $49 +$29 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $133 −$133 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $94 +$27 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$42 +28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $39 +$3 +7%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $30 +$17 +57%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Gam Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Gam Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $30 +$14 +45%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $50 +$51 +101%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $30 +$58 +194%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $88 +$71 +81%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 49¢ $57 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $67 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 85¢ $69 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $50 18h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $81 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $30 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $40 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $44 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 45¢ $43 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $143 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $92 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL 31¢ $45 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- SELL 36¢ $27 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $30 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY 33¢ $49 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi SELL 26¢ $49 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 26¢ $50 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $34 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 34¢ $29 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $49 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $94 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $71 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $122 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $56.00 · 896 history records