Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x8831…877e other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$8
sports 16% −$3
crypto 6% $0
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -13.5% -21.8% 35% 32% -3.4%
≤30d 41 -15.7% -23.7% 34% 32% -5.3%
≤90d 46 -19.4% -27.1% 35% 30% -9.0%
all 46 -19.4% -27.1% 35% 30% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 30% -9.0%
10% -34.1% 28% -17.7%
15% -40.4% 24% -25.6%
20% -46.3% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage46d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $56 +$13 +23%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 $0 -2%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$3 +67%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$14 +91%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$27 +134%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$21 +414%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $6 +$26 +442%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $6 $0 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$11 +365%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 +$13 +46%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$8 +29%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 09 $3 +$1 +44%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $3 $0 +5%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Colombia 7¢ $2 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 4h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 62¢ $29 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 68¢ $15 6h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 44¢ $31 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 9h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $15 13h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 17h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $31 17h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 18h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $5 18h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $29 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.49 · official $7.49 (match) · 76 history records