Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8833…07ec sports 1245 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$302 (-12%) realized −$296 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%725W / 515L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day120.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$19
14 days−$48
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$39
other 3% −$15
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +8.4% -1.9% 60% 52% -4.2%
≤30d 1240 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 49% -11.3%
≤90d 1240 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 49% -11.3%
all 1240 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 49% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 49% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 38% -19.7%
15% -27.1% 27% -27.5%
20% -34.2% 18% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$296
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses725 / 515
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1240 / 1245
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day120.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 87¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 93¢ 79¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $2 +$2 +119%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $2 +$2 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +79%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 -11%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +158%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$2 +129%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $4 +$4 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$5 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8 +$3 +34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 57m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $2 2h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 93¢ $2 8h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $2 8h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 51¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $1 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 18h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 19h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 54¢ $5 19h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 82¢ $1 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 86¢ $1 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $2 21h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $2 25h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 45¢ $2 27h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 46¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 70¢ $1 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 42¢ $0 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1 36h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 55¢ $1 37h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $1 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 38h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 42h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $1 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 43h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 78¢ $5 43h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.48 · official $9.48 (match) · 3500 history records