Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8834…9673 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$157 (-10%) realized −$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$207
14 days−$207
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$209
other 0% −$3
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -20.9% -28.5% 47% 45% -21.9%
≤30d 40 -21.4% -28.9% 48% 45% -21.9%
≤90d 40 -21.4% -28.9% 48% 45% -21.9%
all 40 -21.4% -28.9% 48% 45% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 45% -21.9%
10% -35.7% 38% -29.4%
15% -41.9% 30% -36.2%
20% -47.6% 22% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$31 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage8d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $224 −$224 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $206 +$135 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$41 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$58 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$31 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$5 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$22 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$41 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$12 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$34 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $234 +$70 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $341 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 9h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records