Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8835…7734 crypto 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$306 (+2%) realized +$527 · open −$221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%38W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$6,927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$257
14 days+$1,294
30 days+$546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$488
crypto 27% −$351
sports 21% +$1,126
world 1% −$2
politics 1% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +9.2% -1.2% 64% 64% -0.2%
≤30d 69 +0.3% -9.3% 48% 45% -5.0%
≤90d 79 +0.8% -8.8% 48% 46% -6.0%
all 79 +0.8% -8.8% 48% 46% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 46% -6.0%
10% -17.6% 41% -15.0%
15% -25.5% 41% -23.2%
20% -32.8% 32% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$98 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$6,927
Realized+$527
Unrealized−$221
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses38 / 41
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions26
Markets (closed)79 / 105
History coverage30d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $650 $755 +$105 (+16%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 82¢ $650 $714 +$64 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $800 $650 −$150 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $500 $551 +$51 (+10%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 94¢ $300 $390 +$90 (+30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $250 $309 +$59 (+24%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $350 $299 −$51 (-14%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $250 $270 +$20 (+8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $250 $240 −$10 (-4%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $250 $235 −$15 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+9%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $400 $191 −$209 (-52%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $250 $182 −$68 (-27%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $100 $180 +$80 (+80%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 46¢ $250 $170 −$80 (-32%)
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $200 $106 −$94 (-47%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $251 +$31 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $253 +$164 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $323 +$141 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$90 +59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 +$551 +269%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$314 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$268 +262%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$580 +284%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $253 −$250 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $254 +$246 +97%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 09 $709 $0 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 08 $304 −$300 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 08 $101 −$69 -68%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $354 +$7 +2%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $359 −$90 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 07 $103 −$25 -24%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $205 −$117 -57%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $154 −$150 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $153 +$194 +127%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $151 +$30 +20%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $100 +$15 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $101 +$89 +87%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $305 +$362 +119%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,535 −$269 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $103 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $118 +$71 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 7d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 7d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 7d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 8d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 8d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,927.06 · official $6,927.06 (match) · 264 history records