Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x8836…c145 other 72 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate90%18W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$1
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +5.6% -4.5% 90% 65% -4.4%
≤30d 20 +5.6% -4.5% 90% 65% -4.4%
≤90d 20 +5.6% -4.5% 90% 65% -4.4%
all 20 +5.6% -4.5% 90% 65% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 65% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 30% -13.6%
15% -22.0% 5% -21.9%
20% -29.6% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses18 / 2
Open positions52
Markets (closed)20 / 72
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 78¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 78¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 63¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 84¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 78¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 81¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? No 73¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? No 74¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 80¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 81¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $1 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $1 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 86¢ $1 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $1 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 75¢ $1 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $1 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 68¢ $1 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 85¢ $1 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $1 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 74¢ $1 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $1 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 83¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 90¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 77¢ $1 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 74¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $1 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 74¢ $1 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 87¢ $1 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 93¢ $1 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $1 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 78¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 80¢ $1 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $1 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 73¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 84¢ $1 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.06 · official $52.06 (match) · 90 history records