Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
88 0x8837…ebd1 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days−$35
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$19
other 26% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +9.9% -0.6% 31% 31% -14.0%
≤30d 36 +6.9% -3.3% 31% 31% -14.5%
≤90d 42 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 33% -1.9%
all 42 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 33% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 33% -1.9%
10% -10.5% 33% -11.3%
15% -19.1% 31% -19.8%
20% -27.0% 31% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$14 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)42 / 50
History coverage74d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $204 +$56 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$73 +710%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$100 +324%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 +$46 +152%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 −$21 -67%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -35%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$43 -84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$55 -90%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +185%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Sidemen Charity Match 2026: Winner Apr 18 $56 +$70 +124%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next video? Apr 05 $20 +$31 +156%
Will MrBeast say "Ronaldo" during his next video? Apr 04 $20 +$33 +163%
Will MrBeast say "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during his next vide Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next video? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next video? Apr 04 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $204 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $33 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 22h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $31 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 10¢ $10 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 66¢ $57 38h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.02 · official $36.02 (match) · 87 history records