Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8837…f262 sports 33 markets active 1d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$156 (-29%) realized −$156 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$99
other 42% −$54
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -51.7% -56.3% 30% 24% -36.4%
≤30d 33 -51.7% -56.3% 30% 24% -36.4%
≤90d 33 -51.7% -56.3% 30% 24% -36.4%
all 33 -51.7% -56.3% 30% 24% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.3% 24% -36.4%
10% -60.5% 21% -42.5%
15% -64.3% 18% -48.1%
20% -67.8% 9% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$7 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 −$12 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$7 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 +$39 +129%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$26 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $43 −$6 -14%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 +$13 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $23 32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $8 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $13 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $15 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $8 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $15 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 76¢ $10 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $20 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $10 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $20 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 71¢ $11 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $10 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 94¢ $23 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $20 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records