Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x883c…41a7 sports 233 markets active 3h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$161 (-5%) realized −$169 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate69%161W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$46
other 18% −$63
crypto 13% −$74
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -7.5% -16.3% 67% 57% -21.4%
≤30d 77 -9.1% -17.8% 65% 56% -20.6%
≤90d 102 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 59% -14.7%
all 232 -5.8% -14.8% 69% 53% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 53% -14.4%
10% -22.9% 30% -22.6%
15% -30.4% 18% -30.1%
20% -37.2% 9% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses161 / 71
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage150d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 47¢ 58¢ $35 $43 +$8 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $8 +$11 +134%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $14 −$12 -84%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2 $0 +20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $3 +$1 +35%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$51 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $55 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$3 -54%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1 +$1 +74%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $3 +$2 +60%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5 +$11 +206%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $36 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 12¢ $2 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $2 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 88¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 70¢ $14 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $8 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $22 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $27 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $48 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.19 · official $38.35 · 541 history records