Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:24:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x883d…ec0b world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%26W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$6
politics 20% −$2
other 18% −$6
sports 14% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.6% -14.6% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 -0.7% -10.2% 39% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 79 -1.4% -10.8% 32% 3% -9.7%
all 83 -3.8% -12.9% 31% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 2% -9.9%
10% -21.3% 1% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses26 / 57
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage527d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $34 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -40%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $14 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $34 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $31 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $67 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $61 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $94 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $72 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $38 −$6 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $38 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $83 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $15 $0 -3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $28 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $40 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $26 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $37 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $36 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $1 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 10¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $37 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $13 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $20 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $8 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $25 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.29 · official $1.00 (match) · 355 history records