Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

88 0x883d…f62c other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$118 (+26%) realized +$168 · open −$50

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip

Net edge+47%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$65per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+53.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+69.3%	+53.1%	100%	100%	+44.9%
≤30d	5	+69.3%	+53.1%	100%	100%	+44.9%
≤90d	5	+69.3%	+53.1%	100%	100%	+44.9%
all	5	+69.3%	+53.1%	100%	100%	+44.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+53.1%	100%	+44.9%
10%	+38.5%	100%	+31.0%
15%	+25.1%	100%	+18.3%
20%	+12.8%	40%	+6.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +60% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +69% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$104

Realized+$168

Unrealized−$50

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage2d

Avg bet$65

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	52¢	$104	$83	−$20 (-20%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Colombia	38¢	16¢	$51	$21	−$30 (-59%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$145	+$62	+43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$51	+$24	+47%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$25	+$20	+78%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$43	+$58	+133%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$30	+$13	+45%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	38¢	$52	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$105	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$145	4h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$25	24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$51	24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$43	28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$30	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.17 · official $104.17 (match) · 12 history records