Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x883f…458f crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-9%) realized −$115 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%79W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$169
14 days−$142
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$55
crypto 31% −$35
sports 10% −$30
world 2% −$20
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -40.6% -46.3% 17% 16% -28.4%
≤30d 77 -28.5% -35.3% 23% 22% -24.3%
≤90d 193 -13.9% -22.1% 41% 39% -19.9%
all 193 -13.9% -22.1% 41% 39% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 39% -19.9%
10% -29.6% 33% -27.6%
15% -36.4% 27% -34.6%
20% -42.6% 22% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses79 / 114
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)193 / 202
History coverage82d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$7 +141%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$13 +50%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +89%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +181%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -61%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 −$18 -44%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$16 +45%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 40¢ $12 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $58 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.88 · official $79.88 (match) · 507 history records